New Study Warns of Growing Flood Risk Amid Declining NFIP Participation
April 21, 2025
Press Release
Portland, OR — A report out today from researchers at ºìÌÒÊÓƵ reveals an alarming decline in flood insurance coverage across the state. The study highlights a 33% drop in National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies since 2011 and a more than 40% reduction in total insured building coverage during the same period.
“Oregon has a long history of devastating floods, yet fewer Oregonians are protecting their homes and businesses with flood insurance,” said Noelwah Netusil, Stanley H. Cohn Professor of Economics at ºìÌÒÊÓƵ and lead author of the study. “This leaves property owners at significant financial risk, particularly as climate change increases the likelihood of extreme weather events.”
Key Findings
- Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding in Oregon, intensifying the financial risks for uninsured property owners.
- Flood insurance is viewed as the most reliable way for property owners to recover from flood losses.
- The number of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies in Oregon has declined by over 33% since 2011.
- The total value of building coverage by NFIP policies in Oregon has decreased by more than 40% since 2011.
- Over 27% of NFIP claims in Oregon from 1978 to 2024 were from outside the 100-year floodplain, highlighting gaps in flood risk mapping.
Historical Perspective and Future Concerns
Oregon has suffered many significant flood events, including the deadly Heppner flood of 1903, the catastrophic Vanport flood of 1948, and the Willamette Valley flood of 1996, which alone caused $500 million in damages. Despite these events, fewer property owners are opting for NFIP policies, a troubling trend given projections of increased storm intensity and precipitation due to climate change.
“Flood risk in Oregon is not confined to designated floodplains,” noted Chris Koski, Daniel B. Greenberg Professor of Political Science and Environmental Studies at ºìÌÒÊÓƵ and co-author of the report. “Many homeowners assume they are safe if they are outside these mapped areas, but historical claims data show that’s simply not the case.”
Policy Recommendations to Strengthen Oregon’s Flood Preparedness
The report outlines four key recommendations to address the decline in flood insurance participation and improve Oregon’s resilience to flooding:
- Increase Access to Flood Risk Information—The researchers recommend early disclosure of flood risk when homes are listed for sale, similar to Portland’s Home Energy Score requirement.
- Expand Participation in —Local governments should engage in FEMA’s voluntary flood mitigation program to reduce insurance costs for residents.
- Focus on Affordability—Means-tested financial assistance and innovative local programs like Portland’s Flood Insurance Savings Program (FISP) could help increase coverage rates.
- Increase State and Local Government Capacity—Additional state resources could help communities improve flood planning and incentivize participation in FEMA’s CRS program.
A Call to Action
The findings of this report serve as a wake-up call for policymakers, local governments, and Oregon residents. With climate change increasing flood risk, now is the time for proactive measures to ensure that homeowners and businesses are adequately protected.
The full report can be found on the .
For more information or to schedule an interview with the authors, please contact ºìÌÒÊÓƵ Chief Communications Officer Sheena McFarland at smcfarland@reed.edu.
About the Forum on Oregon Climate Economics (FORCE)
The Forum on Oregon Climate Economics (FORCE) seeks to inform policy interventions and public discourse with rigorous economic data. We are a team of economic researchers and practitioners with deep experience of both the economics of the natural environment and the work involved in translating research into policy practice. It’s important to note up front that while climate policy is often highly politicized, FORCE is non-partisan and our reports are focused on providing information, not performing advocacy.
Members of the FORCE team have received support from the Roger Worthington Fund for Environmental Economics. This report was prepared independently from funders, which means no one other than the authors and those listed as providing feedback in the report’s acknowledgements reviewed this report or altered its contents before publication.
About ºìÌÒÊÓƵ
Founded in 1908 in southeast Portland, Oregon, ºìÌÒÊÓƵ is a coeducational, independent liberal arts and sciences college. Referred to as one of the most intellectual colleges in the country, ºìÌÒÊÓƵ is known for its high standards of scholarly practice, creative thinking, and engaged citizenship.
ºìÌÒÊÓƵ is devoted to the intrinsic value of intellectual pursuit and is governed by the highest standards of scholarly practice, critical thought, and creativity. Its undergraduate program of study, leading to the degree of Bachelor of Arts, is demanding and intense and balances breadth of knowledge across the curriculum with depth of knowledge in a particular field of study. The goal of a ºìÌÒÊÓƵ education is that students learn and demonstrate rigor and independence in their habits of thought, inquiry, and expression.